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Can Republicans really dump Trump?

The chairman of the Republican Party famously said that Donald Trump's tumultuous candidacy had not yet pushed him to pour whiskey into his morning cereal.
But after the past few weeks, Reince Priebus' resolve is being tested again.
It has been a bruising August for the Republican presidential nominee. He attacked the family of a fallen US soldier, appeared to encourage violence against his rival Hillary Clinton and feuded with members of his party. The list goes on.
Many Republicans have determined the Trump campaign has finally reached the point of no return and are running for the exits. So what are their options?The best way for the Republican Party to replace Mr Trump on the ballot at this point is for the New York billionaire to voluntarily leave the race, says Charles Spies, a former top lawyer at the Republican National Committee (RNC).
A vacancy would invoke "Rule Nine" of the Rules of the Republican Party. The board of the RNC - with 160 members representing all states and territories - would select a replacement.
Each state and territory would have the same amount of voting power that it had at the convention. Mike Pence, the vice-presidential nominee, would not get an automatic promotion because the board can choose anyone to fill the vacancy, Mr Spies says.
Unfortunately for the Republican Party, Mr Trump isn't likely to ride off into the sunset quietly. So even though his poll numbers are circling the drain, he is still drawing huge crowds to his rallies, raising millions of dollars and attracting hundreds of journalists to hang on his every word.
"If you're in an echo chamber and everyone is telling you what you want to hear, why would think you should drop out?" Mr Spies says.
  • Fear and anger in Trump-land
Pros: It's the cleanest way for the Republican Party to divorce itself from Mr Trump. If he goes of his own accord, his supporters, who are now a powerful Republican voting bloc, are less likely to spurn the party. And a non-Trump Republican presidential candidate could help the party hold on to their majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Cons: Any candidate tapped to replace Mr Trump would face huge logistical challenges. National presidential campaigns usually take two years - not two months - to pull off. And the pool of candidates will be limited. Promising candidates - such as House Speaker Paul Ryan or Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton - are not likely to sign on to such an uphill task.Without Mr Trump leaving the race, a Republican replacement isn't possible under the rules. But many Republicans are already embracing a third-party option. Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson is a former Republican and served as the governor of New Mexico from 1995 to 2003. Evan McMullin, a former CIA agent and Republican Congressional staff member, is also running as an independent, but he entered the race too late to compete in every state.
Pros: Mr Johnson is poised to do better than any third-party candidate in more than two decades. He's on the ballot in all 50 states and he may participate in the presidential debates if his poll numbers rise to 15% (He's averaging about 10% now).
Cons: Supporting Mr Johnson or Mr McMullin will likely clear the way for a Clinton victory. And although Mr Johnson was once a Republican, some of his views - such as his support of the legalisation of drugs - do not sit well with many conservatives.Some conservatives are holding out hope that an obscure Republican National Committee manoeuvre could rid them of Mr Trump as the nominee. The theory is the RNC could declare Mr Trump "not of sound mind" and remove him under the aforementioned Rule Nine, which caters for a candidate being incapacitated by an ailment like a stroke.
"We're in uncharted territory here... but they are throwing stuff at the wall at this point," says Kevin Sheridan, a former spokesman for the RNC and an adviser to Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign.
Pros: Not many because the chance of it actually happening is zero.
Cons: Essentially calling a man - who more than 10 million Republicans chose to be their president - insane is a bold move. Mr Spies says this "not of sound mind" theory would be a stretch legally. Also, any effort to remove Mr Trump by party insiders would likely fail, he says. "I think you would have an absolute revolt from the Republican grassroots."Better luck next time" isn't the most comforting election strategy, but some disaffected Republicans think their best option is to denounce him and wait. More and more are signing letters and writing columns denouncing Mr Trump. Ohio Governor John Kasich is keeping his distance literally - he declined to show up at Mr Trump's convention.
  • Which Republicans have deserted Trump?
Pros: Taking the moral high ground. Plus political ambitions - Mr Kasich and Ted Cruz, two of Mr Trump's Republican primary rivals, are believed to have their eye on the 2020 presidential race and want to be able to say: "I told you so".
Cons: Pulling support from Mr Trump is not without its risks. He has a strong following among the Republican Party's most loyal voters. Arizona Senator John McCain is no fan of Mr Trump, but he has maintained his tepid endorsement of the nominee. Why? He's up for re-election and needs to maintain his support among the Republican base. Most Republicans who have denounced Mr Trump are either retiring or not up for re-election anytime soon.Things look bad now, but anything can happen in a presidential election. Mr Trump has been underestimated before and eventually came out on top. Republicans have made it this far enduring Mr Trump's wild campaign, so what's another 90 days?
Mr Spies, for one, is still hoping that Mr Trump can right the ship. "He just needs to stop saying offensive things."
Pros: In a word: Power. The executive branch is a huge undertaking involving thousands of positions and there aren't enough Trump loyalists to fill them. Republicans - even ones uneasy with Mr Trump - will be able to shape policy and deliver on issues important to their constituents for the next four years.
Cons: Republicans have long suspected Mr Trump is not a "real Republican". A Trump presidency would test those suspicions. Also Mr Trump may have done lasting damage to the Republican Party's brand with Latino, black, Muslim and women voters. Mr Trump could win with the help of an overwhelmingly white voting bloc, but it may be a pyrrhic victory - a last hurrah for a shrinking party.
Can Republicans really dump Trump? Can Republicans really dump Trump? Reviewed by Unknown on 8:33:00 AM Rating: 5

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